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This article provides an integrated summary of recent economic developments, highlighting changes in the economic data during late 2024 and early 2025 Latest government budgets and analytical commentary on fiscal policy directions. The article focuses on how economic conditions have changed as households and businesses adjust to ongoing uncertainty over canada's trading relationship with the united states.
The canadian economy avoided a recession in the third quarter, according to statistics canada, which reported gdp for september was higher than the bank of canada expected. Provincial and financial outlook current trend tracking and forecasts for each provincial economy Canadian outlook it’s been a tough go for canada so far in 2025
Amid a sizeable trade shock and lingering uncertainty, the economy’s growth outlook is running far softer than most forecasters predicted a year ago
The unemployment rate continues to rise, consumer confidence plummeted in the spring and hesitancy around business investment remains Housing markets have been wobbling in. A quarterly publication that offers insights from deloitte economists on trends and events shaping canadian and international economies, such as economic growth, consumer spending, business investment, trade, market activity, interest rates, and commodity prices 2025 is emerging as a reset year for canada’s economy.
The trade conflict has made the outlook for the canadian economy highly uncertain There is a range of scenarios for how us trade policy could unfold, which leads to a wide range of outcomes for canadian inflation and economic growth. Economy was vulnerable, even before trade shock forecasters were not particularly bullish about canada’s 2025 economic prospects, even before the tariff drama unfolded. While economic data has been mixed, wage pressures have accelerated recently despite numerous indicators suggesting excess supply of labour
In 2025, employees involved in wage negotiations secured an average annual wage increase of 3.3%, well above the level seen in the decade prior to the pandemic.
Canada federal budget 2025 passed the house of commons—here are the key highlights for canadian investors and the economy at large. However, the economy faces significant headwinds from tariffs with the united states High household mortgage debt remains another vulnerability, and high debt service costs weigh on household finances There is also room to improve the efficiency of the tax structure
Canada’s september gdp report revealed that the economic expansion was primarily led by a 1.6% increase in manufacturing However, an advance estimate from the statistics agency indicated a 0.3% gdp decline in october, pointing to a weaker start to the final quarter of 2025 The economy’s unexpected strength further solidified. Despite potential economic headwinds, we believe the equity market will be driven by strong earnings growth expectations and supported by a reasonable valuation
Ongoing rate cuts by the bank of canada should support fixed income returns in 2025, though we expect less outperformance in credit compared with 2024.
Canada’s economy grew in 2025 yet felt weaker on the ground Learn why housing, government spending and a trade shock created the year’s most conflicting economic story. Interest rates and inflation canada’s 2025 economic outlook by scotiabank’s chief economist find out what to expect from the economy over the next year. Trade tensions pose significant challenges, but a gradual recovery is on the horizon canada is likely to experience stagnant growth in 2025 (q1 2023 = 100) sources
Statistics canada, ey analysis the canadian economy entered 2025 with signs of momentum, but as trade and geopolitical tensions have evolved, growth is expected to subside. Real gross domestic product increased 0.6% in the third quarter of 2025, after falling 0.5% in the second quarter The rise in the third quarter was driven by a strengthening trade balance, as imports dropped and exports edged up. The 2025 federal budget plots a path for the canadian economy to emerge from the current crisis
But it also highlights just how deep a hole the economy is in right now and how small the margin.
I am pleased to present canada’s 2025 state of trade report offering a comprehensive snapshot of canada’s international trade and economic performance in 2024.
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